As an aside, the 2022 Senate map does not feature many competitive Democratic-held races, and if Dems could get to 53+ seats they'd have a very serious path to hold the Senate through 2024 and a hypothetical midterm wave
In fact, that's the reason for the drought: if you're polling next week, you wouldn't poll over the last few. Obviously it doesn't matter too much whether Biden flips AK or something. Biden wins several of the Trump +10 or more districts that keep popping up in private polls, like IN05, MO02, TX21, etc.
But I certainly agree with this characterization of what we do haveIf you lay out the calendar, most organizations are going to want a poll ahead of the conventions/after the VP pick--and that means you probably avoid the late July period.
So, even a 'simple' RCP-like average should obviously be better for Biden than this.
But there's only so much you can do. This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Thanks to the news this week, I spent some time over the last few days grappling with a question that many, many people have thought about before me: 'what's a suburb?'
You can see that we have these moments in mid-July and mid-June when the live polls rise to nearly match the online polls. You can try to Posted by 20 days ago. The live interview state polls are also rare, and they don't add a ton of extra clarity. Another thing that rigorous averages do is adjust for 'house effects'--persistent bias in a poll. By state, these estimates yield results that look a lot like recent polls (though keep in mind that, unlike this simulation, national shifts would undoubtedly manifest in non-uniform and unpredictable ways by state): One reason is a change in the composition of recent polls.
Is there a big tier of folks who have serious reservations, even beyond the anti-Harris leakers? As a result, it's not like the House Effect drag Rasmussen all the way back to the live polls. Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" 'Our polls use a variety of different geographical variables in different contexts: census block group density, made up regions like 'philly suburbs', census-defined metro areas, or the NCHS urban-rural scheme. At the same time, none of this means that there *hasn't* been tightening. Instead, it drags Rasmussen back toward the average, which is something more like a Morning Consult and YouGov. Here, for instance, is what the poll averages look like if you break the polls down by method. Anything like it threatens longstanding GOP structural advantages Thread by @Nate_Cohn: Trump's lead among white voters has all but vanished. Yeah, it's a simple polling average, but even a simple poll average would include the Morning Consult and Ipsos polls. Those Quinnipiac polls, OTOH, sure look like their last Biden+15 poll. But the online polls show *very* little movement, and there are really no live interview polls at all--that big drop is mainly due to one poll, and may or may not hold up with more data.
You can try to
Of course, the 'national trends may not manifest uniformly point' is particularly true by district. As cautioned earlier, individual states will defy national trends in significant ways, esp weird ones like AK/UT. The consequences for the GOP in the House might be equally alarming, as Biden carries more than 250 congressional districts in this scenario More surprising is what comes next: All of this shouldn't be too surprising. RCP is a particularly peculiar case. This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! He covers elections, polling and demographics. Anything like it threatens longstanding GOP structural advantages nytimes.com/2020/07/… Trump's lead among white voters has all but vanished. But even if we add in all the recent polls to make a better RCP-like average, we'd still find Biden doing worse than earlier in the month. That's just going to happen. 108. But the idea that GOP losses might now well past '18 shouldn't be a surprise: Trump's approval rating today is a net-6 points lower than it was heading into the midterm. There's no plausible reason to exclude those but allow Rasmussen and HarrisX or whatever. Add to 'My Authors' Read all threads. Here, for instance, are House Effects by 538 pollster rating (where 0 is their "A+" and 1 is an "D-") The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate By NATE COHN KEVIN QUEALY APRIL 9, 2019 A detailed look at the …
It's not easy to imagine the consequences of this kind of demographic shift, but they are potentially very significant. Anyway the polling drought will come to an end. But right now, they're only about 15% of the estimate, even though they're considered the best polls. It is entirely possible that another round of round of ABC, Monmouth, CNN type national polls would show double-digit leads for Biden and move the average quickly back his way
IMO, two Monmouth polls of GA/IA were maybe more like Biden+8 than their prior Biden+12 national result.
We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It's a murky moment for evaluating the state of the race, since we've had very few high-quality polls in the last three weeks. If we go back to this chart, there's still tightening across all mode. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Thread by @Nate_Cohn: Let's talk about what's happening under the hood on some of the poll averages right now RCP is a particularly peculiar ah, it's a simple polling average, but even a simple poll average would include the Morning Consult and Ipsos pol… Thread Reader Nate Cohn Follow @Nate_Cohn, 5 tweets, 2 min read Bookmark Save as PDF My Authors.